Running News Daily

When the elite field assembles in Nagoya, Japan on March 8, the script already feels charged with anticipation. Last year’s top three — Sheila Chepkirui, Sayaka Sato, and Eunice Chebichii Chumba — are all returning. Yet despite that familiar podium, the 2026 edition appears poised to revolve around a sharper, potentially faster duel featuring Chepkirui, Ethiopia’s Aynalem Desta, and Japanese national record holder Honami Maeda.

On paper, the margins are razor-thin. Chepkirui boasts a 2:17:49 personal best from Berlin in 2023, while Desta delivered a 2:17:37 performance in Amsterdam last autumn — the most recent sub-2:20 among the leading contenders. Maeda’s 2:18:59 national record at the Osaka International Women’s Marathon in 2024 confirmed her place among the world’s elite, even if her recent racing schedule has been relatively quiet. Her 1:10:07 at the Houston Half Marathon last month offered a glimpse of solid conditioning, though history shows she does not need a flashy buildup to produce something special; when she broke the national record, she arrived without a headline-grabbing tune-up.

If the early pace is ambitious — somewhere in the 2:18 range — it could quickly narrow the contest to those three. Sustaining that rhythm through the final 10 kilometers demands both proven endurance and the courage to commit early. Desta’s freshness gives her a compelling edge, Chepkirui’s championship composure makes her dangerous, and Maeda’s ability to rise on home soil cannot be underestimated.

However, Nagoya has often rewarded patience as much as aggression. Should the tempo settle closer to 2:20, the race could expand into a layered battle. Chumba remains a consistent performer at the highest level, while Selly Chepyego Kaptich and Sato sit comfortably within the 2:20–2:22 bracket and would welcome a more measured first half.

There is also quiet intrigue behind the front line. Women-only half marathon national record holder Rino Goshima returns after a 2:26:08 debut here last year and will be aiming to convert her raw speed into a more complete marathon performance. Meanwhile, 2023 World University Games half marathon gold medalist Hikaru Kitagawa arrives buoyed by a 1:10:29 personal best in Marugame earlier this month — a signal that her upward trajectory may continue over 42.195 kilometers.

Adding further unpredictability is a wave of ambitious debutants. Wakana Kabasawa and Yuna Takahashi both enter the marathon distance fresh off sub-1:09:30 half marathon personal bests this season. With that foundation of speed, it would be no surprise to see them commit to at least a 2:20 tempo from the outset.

Ultimately, the shape of the race will be decided by intent. If the leaders choose to be bold, Nagoya could witness a relentless, high-quality confrontation among three women separated by mere seconds in ability. If caution prevails, the contest may unfold as a tactical chess match, with a larger group poised to strike late. Either way, the 2026 Nagoya Women’s Marathon promises not just depth — but genuine, sustained drama from start to finish.