Running News Daily

The Western States 100 is the Super Bowl of US trail running, just with fewer cryptocurrency commercials. Every year, the race gathers some of the best athletes in the world to test themselves on the world-famous course. The competition, along with comprehensive data gathering by the race organizers, provides a massive statistical opportunity.

Marshall Burke, associate professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University, seized that opportunity with some wonderfully cool data analyses heading into the 2022 race. The research question he sought to answer: how are race times progressing as the sport grows, and how are those times affected by temperature changes?

Marshall is a wonderful athlete himself, with an April 2022 Fastest Known Time on the Buffalo River Trail in Arkansas, so he's used to moving fast. In his spare time, between research and Zoom calls, he compiled the data on finishing times and temperatures, controlling for years when there was snow on the course or when the course was altered. 

"I may never run Western States," Marshall says. "But I can run statistics on it!"

He's doing world-changing work on climate change at Stanford University, and that made his quest have both a personal and academic interest. "This combines my research focus on the impacts of climate with my hobby of running slowly through the mountains," he says. Since this was a quick analysis for fun (and to help me with coaching; helps to have really, really smart friends), Marshall wants to be clear that the numbers could change. And I want to be clear that any errors are the fault of the field of Statistics for being the worst.

Let's all run fast through some of the fascinating data he gathered!Finding #1: Times of top finishers have progressed rapidly.

Since 2000, a linear model of top times for men and women shows bonkers improvement. Bonkers is a scientific term; you'd know it if you, like me, took an Intro To Stats class in 2004. The male winner is about 2 hours faster on average, with the same general improvement for the average of places 2 through 5. The female winners are around 1 hour faster, with places 2 through 5 improving more than 2 hours.When not accounting for temperature, times would be expected to drop considerably each year-around 4 minutes per year for men since the 1980s, and about 4:45 per year for women. Interestingly, the women's top 5 times are coming down faster than the winning time, showing a tighter race at the front.

I asked Marshall to run the men's times with Jim Walmsley being removed. Want to see a cool chart of just how much of an outlier he is? Taking out Jim's winning times moved the linear regression substantially, with the new red line predicting substantially slower times overall. And if he didn't get lost in 2016, the effect would be even more pronounced! You know you're a good runner when you mess up the statistics.  

Finding #2: For all finishers, men are improving gradually, while women are improving rapidly.

Since 2000, the average women's finish time has improved by 5 minutes and 15 seconds per year! Meanwhile, the average finisher independent of gender has only improved around 2 minutes per year. So women are driving the sport forward in an emphatic way! Bosses!

Finding #3: Heat has a massive performance impact.

Let's start with a simple scatterplot of heat versus winning time.There is clearly a ton of variation in the scatter. Heat is not destiny. But there is some clear relationship, so maybe it's destiny's child. If you go too hard on a hot day, the body has to pay the bills bills bills later.

Marshall ran multiple regression analyses to combine the effects of overall time improvements with heat increases to give us a more sophisticated analysis, again also controlling for whether there was snow on the course. He is so damn sophisticated! Using times since 2000, the general rule is that for every 1 degree F increase in temperature in Auburn, California on race day, there is a 2:48 increase in winning time for men and a 2:52 increase for women. Removing Jim's times (Mr. Mess-Up-Your-Stats), there is a 3:26 increase for men for every degree increase.

For the average finisher using the same regression analysis, 1 degree F increases correspond with 2:34 increases in finishing times. DNFs go up about 0.5% for every 1 degree F increase as well. The ratio of times for men and women is not significantly impacted by temperature, so even though the hot year in 2021 saw women absolutely rock the list of top finishers, that may not be explained by heat in the way that everyone assumed.Finding #4: Predictions for 2022

The forecast from Weather Underground is currently 97 degrees F on race day in Auburn, relative to an average of 89. Combining the heat data with the overall improvement in times as the sport progresses, here are the predictions from Marshall's model, again based on data from the last 20 years.

For the male winner, it depends heavily on whether we remove Jim from the data. Assuming Jim is a true outlier, we can expect a winning time around 15 hours. For women, it's 17.5 hours. For the average racer, times should be around a half hour slower than normal, but that is affected by a higher DNF rate, so I'd suggest athletes build in much more buffer.

The trend in the 10th place times is most instructive to me, as a coach that is trying to help support athletes getting an invitation to next year's race. Those 10th place times have come down by massive margins over time, 9:22 for men and 12:50 for women. But the times are also more affected by the heat relative to the top 5 finishers. Put it all together, and the model predicts that 20 hours will place in the top-10 for women, and around 17 hours for men.

My personal prediction will be for fast winning times, but a greater spread after that, with the 10th place man and woman being around 30 minutes slower than predicted. The faster times as the sport progresses will not follow a linear model eventually, and my guess is that we are starting to approach an asymptote. To paraphrase Mark Twain, there are lies, damn lies, Statistics, and a running coach pulling wild guesses out of his butt.

Three Big Conclusions

Respect the heat, but don't respect it too much.  

It's good to have brilliant friends like Marshall when you're looking for a possible coaching advantage. 

Finally, Jim Walmsley breaks statistics.

Most Olympic marathoners spend their youth focused on running. They join track clubs, compete in national championships, and pursue the sport from an early age.

Julia Mayer’s journey was very different.

Today, Mayer is Austria’s marathon record holder, a multiple national record holder on the roads, and an Olympian. Yet for much of her athletic life, running was not her primary sport.

For 16 years, she played soccer.

Then she discovered something that would change her life.

“I noticed that I was really fast in the fun runs and that it was really, really fun,” Mayer said when reflecting on her transition from soccer to distance running.

What began as curiosity quickly became a passion. She eventually made the bold decision to leave soccer behind and focus entirely on running. It was a move that surprised many people around her, but Mayer believed she had found her true athletic calling.

The decision proved to be the right one.

Within a few years, Mayer developed into one of Europe’s top marathon runners. Her steady improvement carried her from local races to the international stage, where she began rewriting Austria’s record books.

She now holds Austrian records in the marathon, half marathon, and road 10K. Her marathon best of 2:26:08 established her as the fastest female marathoner in Austrian history. Her performances in the half marathon and 10K have further cemented her place among the country’s all-time great distance runners.

Her rise culminated with qualification for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

Competing in the Olympic marathon represented the realization of a dream. On one of the most challenging marathon courses ever used for the Olympics, Mayer ran courageously against the strongest field in the world and finished 55th in her Olympic debut.

Behind the scenes, success has come through extraordinary dedication. During marathon preparation, Mayer trains twice a day and covers approximately 200 kilometers, or 124 miles, each week. The workload demands discipline, patience, and a deep commitment to continuous improvement. 

What makes her story especially inspiring is not simply the records or the Olympic appearance.

It is the fact that she found her greatest talent later than many elite runners.

In a sport where athletes are often identified at a young age, Mayer’s journey serves as a reminder that potential does not always reveal itself early. Sometimes it takes years of experience, a willingness to try something new, and the courage to follow a different path. 

The former soccer player who once chased a ball across a field is now chasing history on the roads of Europe.

And according to those closest to her, her best performances may still be ahead.

For runners of every age and ability, Julia Mayer’s story delivers a powerful lesson: it is never too late to discover what you are capable of.

From soccer player to Olympian, her journey proves that remarkable achievements can begin when least expected.

Megan Keith produced the performance of her career in Oslo on Thursday night, shattering one of Scotland’s longest-standing distance running records and cementing her place among Britain’s greatest female 3000m runners.

The 24-year-old clocked a sensational 8:28.35 over 3000m, breaking the Scottish outdoor record that had stood for nearly four decades. In doing so, Keith eclipsed the previous mark of 8:29.02, set by Scottish legend Yvonne Murray back in 1988, ending a record reign that had lasted 38 years.

Keith’s breakthrough run was more than just a national record. The performance also propelled her to third on the UK outdoor all-time list, placing her behind only two of Britain’s most celebrated distance runners — Paula Radcliffe, who leads the rankings with 8:22.20, and Laura Weightman, whose 8:26.07 remains the second-fastest outdoor mark by a British woman.

The significance of Keith’s achievement is amplified by the calibre of athletes she now joins in the record books. For decades, Murray’s mark stood as one of Scottish athletics’ most untouchable records, surviving generations of elite competitors. Keith has now succeeded where many outstanding runners have fallen short, announcing herself as one of the leading distance talents in British athletics.

Her time also compares favourably with the best performances produced indoors. Olympic medallist Laura Muir ran 8:26.41 indoors in Karlsruhe in 2017, underlining just how exceptional Keith’s outdoor effort in Oslo truly was.

The run continues a remarkable rise for the Scottish star, whose progression over recent seasons has transformed her from a promising prospect into a genuine force on the international stage. Running with confidence and composure against elite competition, Keith demonstrated both the speed and endurance required to challenge the very best in Europe and beyond.

With the World Championship season gathering momentum, Keith’s record-breaking display sends a powerful message. Not only has she etched her name into Scottish athletics history, but she has also established herself as a serious contender in one of the sport’s most competitive events.

In Oslo, Megan Keith did far more than break a record. She ended a 38-year wait, climbed into the upper echelon of British distance running, and delivered a performance that may prove to be a defining moment in her career.

British middle-distance talent Phoebe Gill took another significant step forward in her return to top form, producing a determined victory over 800 metres at the Meeting de Marseille in France on Wednesday.

Competing in challenging, wind-affected conditions, the 19-year-old demonstrated both resilience and composure as she held off a late charge from Switzerland's Veronica Vancardo to secure the win in 2:00.81. Vancardo finished just three hundredths of a second behind in 2:00.84, underlining the fiercely contested nature of the race.

While the margin of victory was narrow, the result represented another encouraging milestone for Gill as she continues to rebuild momentum following her injury setback. The young Briton showed impressive race awareness and strength in the closing stages, maintaining her advantage despite the difficult conditions that made fast running a challenge throughout the evening.

The Marseille triumph adds to a growing body of evidence that Gill is steadily progressing toward her best form. Earlier in her comeback campaign, she clocked 2:01.50 for 800m in Bydgoszcz before demonstrating her versatility with a strong 4:05.53 performance over 1500 metres at the BMC Grand Prix meeting in Trafford.

Those performances have highlighted not only her improving fitness but also her ability to compete across multiple distances as she carefully builds her season. The Marseille victory now provides further confirmation that the European junior star is moving in the right direction.

Gill emerged as one of Britain's most exciting middle-distance prospects through a series of breakthrough performances as a teenager, earning widespread recognition for her fearless racing style and remarkable maturity. Injury temporarily interrupted that upward trajectory, but her recent results suggest she is steadily rediscovering the form that made her one of the sport's brightest young talents.

With each race, the signs of progress become increasingly evident. Winning in difficult conditions and under pressure from a quality field is often a stronger indicator than a fast time alone, and Gill's latest success demonstrated exactly those qualities.

As the summer season gathers pace, the Marseille victory offers another confidence boost for the British teenager, whose return continues to gain momentum. If her recent progression is any indication, Gill could soon find herself back among the leading names on the European middle-distance circuit. 

The NCAA Track and Field Championships delivered a moment few could have predicted as Ja’Kobe Tharp produced one of the most astonishing performances in the history of sprint hurdling, rewriting the record books in spectacular fashion.

Competing in the opening round of the men’s 110-meter hurdles, the Auburn star stunned the athletics world by clocking an incredible 12.75 seconds, becoming the first athlete ever to break the 12.80-second barrier. In doing so, he eclipsed the long-standing world record of 12.80 set by Aries Merritt in 2012, a mark that had stood as one of the sport’s most revered achievements for more than a decade.

What makes Tharp’s breakthrough even more remarkable is the scale of his improvement. Entering the championships, the defending NCAA and U.S. champion had recorded a season-best of 13.05 seconds. Yet under the brightest spotlight, he unleashed a performance that exceeded every expectation, slicing an extraordinary 0.26 seconds from his personal best in a race that instantly became one of the greatest ever run.

The achievement sent shockwaves throughout the track and field community. While Tharp arrived in Eugene as one of the leading contenders for the NCAA title, few envisioned a performance capable of redefining the limits of the event. Instead, the American hurdler delivered a race for the ages, combining flawless technique, explosive speed, and impeccable rhythm from the first hurdle to the finish line.

The historic run not only secured his place in athletics history but also transformed the outlook of the championship. With the world record now in his possession, Tharp advances to the final as the overwhelming favorite, carrying momentum that could make an already unforgettable weekend even more extraordinary.

For years, the 12.80 barrier appeared untouchable. On a stunning day at the NCAA Championships, Ja’Kobe Tharp proved otherwise, producing the kind of performance that reminds fans why sport remains so unpredictable. In a matter of seconds, he turned a routine qualifying round into a landmark moment that will be remembered for generations.

The world record no one saw coming is now a reality—and Ja’Kobe Tharp is the man who changed history.

A new chapter in middle-distance running may have begun in Oslo after American teenager Cooper Lutkenhaus produced one of the most remarkable performances of the season, narrowly defeating reigning Olympic champion Emmanuel Wanyonyi in a thrilling men's 800m contest at the Diamond League meeting.

The 17-year-old sensation shocked a world-class field by crossing the finish line first in a race that came down to the smallest of margins. After an intense battle over the final metres, Lutkenhaus held off Wanyonyi by just one hundredth of a second, producing a dramatic finish that left the packed stadium in disbelief.

From the opening lap, the pace was relentless as the leading contenders positioned themselves for a fierce showdown. As the athletes entered the home straight, Wanyonyi appeared poised to unleash his trademark finishing kick. However, Lutkenhaus refused to be intimidated, matching the Olympic champion stride for stride before producing a perfectly timed lean at the line to secure a historic victory.

The result marks a breakthrough moment for the young American, who continues to establish himself as one of the brightest talents in global athletics. Defeating an Olympic champion at a Diamond League event is a feat many athletes spend entire careers pursuing, yet Lutkenhaus achieved it before reaching adulthood.

For Wanyonyi, the narrow defeat does little to diminish his status as one of the world's premier 800m runners. The Kenyan once again demonstrated his exceptional class and competitiveness, pushing the race to a world-class standard and forcing his young rival to deliver the performance of a lifetime.

Beyond the result itself, the race offered a glimpse into what could become one of the sport's most exciting rivalries in the years ahead. With established stars and emerging talents now pushing each other to new heights, the men's 800m continues to evolve into one of athletics' most captivating events.

On a memorable night in Oslo, the spotlight belonged to Cooper Lutkenhaus. At just 17 years old, he stood toe-to-toe with an Olympic champion and emerged victorious, announcing himself to the athletics world in spectacular fashion.