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“Predictive processing” offers novel ways to think about sports psychology, the limits of endurance, and the urge to explore.

If you read popular science books about the brain, you might have encountered a new “grand theory” called predictive processing. If you haven’t yet, you will. Over the last two decades, it has gone from obscure idea to increasingly dominant paradigm. And it’s such a broad and all-encompassing theory that it seemingly has something to say about everything: how the brain works, why it’s structured the way it is, what that means for how we perceive the world—but also horror movies, mental health, cancer cells, and perhaps even endurance sports and adventure.

I’ve been trying to get my head around predictive processing for five or six years now. It can get complicated if you dig into the mathematical details. But I recently read a book called The Experience Machine: How Our Minds Predict and Shape Reality that does a good job of conveying the theory’s essence in an accessible way. It came out last year and is by Andy Clark, a cognitive philosopher at the University of Sussex who is one of the theory’s leading proponents. The book got me thinking about how predictive processing applies to some of the areas of science that I’m most interested in.

Here, then, is a very rough guide to predictive processing—still a speculative and unproven theory at this point, but an intriguing one—from the Sweat Science perspective.

Normally, we assume that you see the world as it is. Light bounces off the objects around you and into your eyes; the receptors in your eyes send signals to your brain; your brain makes sense of those incoming signals and concludes that, say, there’s a snake on the path. Predictive processing flips the script. Your brain starts by making a prediction of what it expects to see; it sends that prediction out toward your eyes, where the predictions are compared with incoming signals. If there’s any discrepancy between the outgoing predictions and the incoming signals, you update your predictions. Maybe it turns out that it’s a stick on the path, even though at first glance you could have sworn it was a snake.

This is actually a very old idea. It’s often attributed, in a basic form, to Hermann von Helmholtz, a nineteenth-century German scientist. Modern neuroscience pushes the idea farther and offers some clues that it’s true: for example, there are more neural connections leading from the brain to sensory organs like the eyes than there are carrying information from the senses back to the brain. Those outgoing signals are presumably carrying the brain’s predictions to the senses. What we see (and hear and smell and so on), in this picture, is basically a controlled hallucination that is periodically fact-checked by the senses.

What I find particularly intriguing about predictive processing is that there’s a deeper mathematical layer. A British scientist named Karl Friston, who pioneered several brain imaging techniques in the 1990s and is by several measures the most-cited neuroscientist ever, has proposed an idea called the free energy principle. All life, Friston argues, has an essential drive to minimize surprise—which is related to a mathematical quantity, borrowed from physics, called free energy—in order to ensure its continued survival. The resulting equations are beautiful but famously inscrutable. If you’re interested, the best introduction I’ve found is in a free e-book published in 2022 by Friston and two colleagues called Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. The important point, though, is that these equations lead to the qualitative picture I described above, of the brain as a prediction machine.

In The Experience Machine, Clark lays out some examples of why this idea matters. Mental health conditions like depression and anxiety may relate to glitches in how the brain updates its predictions; the aesthetic chills you get from great art or horror movies may signal that we’ve encountered “critical new information that resolves important uncertainties”—a physiological “aha” moment. But what does all this tell us about endurance?

The athlete-related topic that Clark addresses most directly in his book is sports psychology. For example, he has a section on the power of self-affirmation, in which the positive words you say to yourself alter your brain’s predictions, which in turns alters your actions in performance-boosting ways. I’ve written a bunch of times about the effects of motivational self-talk on endurance. I’m fascinated by the evidence that it works, but struggle to reconcile it with my mechanistic understanding of how the body works. Predictive processing offers a new way of understanding the science of self-talk.

The key point is that our brains aren’t just predicting the present; they’re also simulating the future, to minimize unexpected surprises. If we expect to feel pain, fatigue, doubt, or even hunger, those predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies—just as, if you’re wandering through the rainforest, you’re more likely to mistake a stick for a snake than if you’re walking down Fifth Avenue. I remember, a decade ago, puzzling over the results of a study that fed people milkshakes and found that their appetite hormones responded differently depending on whether they were told it was an “indulgent” shake or a “sensible” one. How could appetite hormones respond to words? Through the predictions sent from the brain to the gut.

Clark has a long discussion of placebos, but the most unexpected suggestion he makes is a way of improving sports performance “in a rather sneaky manner.” One of the interesting facts about placebos is that the response can be trained. If you give a real, clinically effective drug to someone repeatedly, their brain will eventually begin predicting the response more and more strongly. During the Second World War, nurses who were running short of morphine sometimes injected saline instead; it turns out that, if the patients had been receiving morphine regularly, their bodies (and brains) responded to the saline injection in a similar way.

Clark proposes training an athlete with a drug that is banned in competition (like stimulants), then giving them a placebo version when they actually race. In theory, this should generate a stronger placebo response than you’d normally get. For the record, I don’t think this is consistent with what the World Anti-Doping Agency calls “the spirit of sport,” but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

What first sparked my interest in predictive processing was an email from a reader after my book Endure came out in 2018. I’d written about how our expectations of how a race will feel at any given point affects how hard we feel we’re able to push, based on theories from Ross Tucker and other researchers. Predictive processing, the emailer suggested, might have something to say on the topic.

I think that’s true. As you gain experience, you develop a pretty good idea of what you’ll feel like halfway through a 5K. If you feel better or worse than expected, that generates a prediction error. There are two ways of fixing prediction errors. One is to update your beliefs: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard at this point in the race, but it feels hard, so I’ll adjust my internal prediction. The other is to adjust your actions: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard, so I’ll slow down until it feels medium-hard. The second strategy is what Friston calls active inference.

Why is it that we generally adjust our pace rather than our beliefs when we’re racing? I’m not sure, but I wonder whether predictive processing will suggest some new ways of probing this longstanding question.

There’s a puzzle in predictive processing called the Dark Room problem. If the free energy principle demands that we minimize surprise, why don’t we just lock ourselves in a dark room until we starve to death? One way of answering this question is to recall that we’re not just trying to minimize present surprise; we’re also trying to minimize surprise in the future. And the best way of avoiding future surprises is to learn as much as possible about the world and how it works.

Predictive processing, in other words, wires us to seek out the unknown in order to learn about it, as a way of minimizing future surprise. This is a different way of thinking about why we like venturing into the wilderness, undertaking challenges like running a marathon, and traveling to unfamiliar places. This is an idea I’m digging deeper into for a forthcoming book on the science of exploring.

Does expressing these ideas in the language of predictive processing actually change anything? That remains to be seen. I’ve talked to some scientists over the past few years who view it as genuinely new, and others who view it more as new words for familiar ideas.

The most practical suggestion that I’ve seen comes from an Israeli scientist named Moshe Bar, who wrote a book called Mindwandering in 2022. Bar’s big idea is that we have what he calls “overarching states of mind” that reflect the degree to which we’re focusing on the “top-down” predictions generated by our brains versus the “bottom-up” observations from our senses.

When we put more weight on predictions, we become more narrowly focused on a given task; when we put more weight on sensory data, we have broader attention, are more inclined to explore, and have a more positive mood. By “zooming out”—thinking about the big picture or the future, talking to ourselves in second person—we can shift the dial toward sensory input and loosen the grip that our predictions sometimes exert on us.

Admittedly, all of this sounds a bit esoteric. But the more I read about predictive processing, and the more I talk to scientists who are developing these ideas, the more I’m convinced that there’s something interesting here. Exactly where all this will lead—well, that’s hard to predict.

At 67, Canadian runner Pete Benson is preparing to take on one of the most extraordinary endurance challenges in marathon running: completing seven marathons across seven continents in just seven days while raising money for a cause that reaches far beyond the finish line.

Hailing from Grand Manan, New Brunswick, Benson is set to participate in the Great World Race, an ambitious event that combines the physical demands of marathon running with a demanding journey around the globe. The challenge will require him to complete seven full marathons, each covering 42.195 kilometres, while travelling between continents on a tightly scheduled itinerary.

The challenge is scheduled to begin on November 15, 2026, with pre-event activities expected to start around November 12. Benson's adventure will begin in Antarctica, where the icy terrain and harsh conditions will provide a formidable introduction to the week ahead.

The opening marathon is scheduled for Wolf's Fang in Antarctica, where Benson will face the unfamiliar and potentially unforgiving conditions of the frozen landscape. Reflecting on the prospect of running through the ice and snow, he admitted that the experience is intimidating.

"That's pretty, pretty scary in itself," he said. "Through the ice and snow."

From Antarctica, Benson will travel to Cape Town, South Africa, for his second marathon on November 16. The journey will then continue to Perth, Australia, on November 17, followed by Singapore on November 18. On November 19, he is scheduled to race in the Algarve, Portugal, before heading to Cartagena, Colombia, on November 20. The challenge will conclude in Miami, United States, on November 21.

The demanding itinerary will leave little time for conventional recovery. After each marathon, Benson will need to travel to the next destination, navigate changing time zones and prepare for another 42.195 kilometres. Managing fatigue, nutrition, hydration and sleep will be essential as he attempts to complete the seven races within a single week.

Benson described the unusual routine that awaits him, highlighting the relentless cycle of running and travelling that defines the challenge.

"We run the race, get back on the bus, back on the plane, head to the next one and away we go around the world," Benson said. "That plane becomes our hotel and restaurant for the week, pretty much."

Beyond the physical demands, Benson recognises that taking part in such an ambitious international adventure comes at a considerable financial cost. He describes running as a personal investment, one that has provided him with valuable experiences and opportunities to discover more about himself.

"It's certainly a want, not a need," he said. "Some people go on river cruises and other things that they spend their money on and I spend my money on running and I've learned a lot from it."

Despite the expense, Benson believes the experience is worth the investment.

"So I think the investment is worth it, but it is extravagant," he said.

However, his motivation extends beyond personal achievement. Benson is also using the challenge to raise money for a nonprofit organisation that funds clean-water projects in countries around the world. The fundraising initiative is voluntary and is not a requirement for participating in the event.

By connecting his running adventure to a cause with a tangible impact on communities, Benson hopes to give every kilometre a greater purpose. His effort demonstrates how an individual sporting challenge can also become an opportunity to support work that improves lives.

"I'm happy that there's a purpose behind every mile that I run," he said.

That purpose adds another dimension to Benson's ambitious undertaking. While the seven marathons will test his physical strength, mental resilience and ability to recover between races, his fundraising mission will allow him to contribute to efforts aimed at improving access to clean water around the world.

As November 15 approaches, Benson is preparing for a demanding week that will take him from the ice and snow of Antarctica to the streets of Miami, with five other destinations in between. Each marathon will bring a new test, requiring careful preparation, determination and the ability to keep moving forward despite accumulating fatigue.

At 67, Benson is setting out to complete an extraordinary endurance challenge while supporting a cause beyond himself. Seven marathons, seven continents and seven days will test his limits, but his journey will carry a purpose that extends far beyond the finish line.

Kenyan twins Caroline and Purity Gitonga delivered outstanding performances at the 2026 Valencia Half Marathon in Spain, with both athletes setting new personal bests in a memorable display of endurance, determination, and sibling excellence.

Caroline led the way, clocking an impressive 1:04:59 to finish sixth in the women's race. The performance marked a significant breakthrough for the talented Kenyan, who improved her previous personal best of 1:06:26 by 1 minute and 27 seconds, underlining her continued progress among the world's leading half-marathon runners.

Her twin sister, Purity, was equally impressive, crossing the finish line in 1:05:56 to secure 11th place. She shaved 1 minute and 35 seconds off her previous personal best of 1:07:31, completing a remarkable day for the sisters as they both reached new milestones in their athletic careers.

Their performances highlighted the strength of Kenya's distance-running tradition while showcasing the individual talent and shared determination that have made the Gitonga twins athletes to watch. Competing on one of the world's fastest half-marathon courses, Caroline and Purity demonstrated their ability to translate hard training into significant improvements on the international stage.

Having a twin sister who understands the demands of elite athletics can provide a unique source of motivation. From the discipline required during training to the challenges of competing against the world's best, the sisters share a journey that extends beyond the finish line. Their latest achievements in Valencia offer another inspiring example of how ambition, perseverance, and mutual encouragement can drive athletes toward new heights.

For Caroline, finishing sixth in 1:04:59 represents another important step in her development, while Purity's 1:05:56 performance confirms her own impressive progress. Although they finished several places apart, their achievements tell the same powerful story: two athletes pushing their limits and continuing to improve against a highly competitive international field.

Valencia once again provided a stage for exceptional distance-running performances, and the Gitonga twins made the most of the opportunity. Their personal bests are not only a testament to their hard work but also an encouraging sign of what they could accomplish as they continue to gain experience and pursue even greater ambitions.

Two sisters, two personal bests, and one unforgettable day on the roads of Valencia. Caroline and Purity Gitonga have given Kenyan athletics another reason to celebrate, and their latest performances will undoubtedly strengthen interest in what the talented twins can achieve in the seasons ahead.

Australian endurance athlete Mick Marshall has achieved an extraordinary milestone at the 2026 Marine Corps Marathon in Washington, D.C., setting a world record for the fastest marathon completed on crutches after crossing the finish line in an incredible 5:35:50.

Representing Altra as an elite athlete, Marshall demonstrated remarkable determination and perseverance throughout the 26.2-mile (42.195-kilometre) race, turning one of the world's most celebrated marathon events into a stage for an inspiring display of human resilience.

Completing a marathon is a demanding physical challenge for any athlete, requiring months of preparation, mental strength and the ability to push through fatigue. Covering the same distance on crutches presents a different set of challenges, placing considerable demands on the upper body, coordination and endurance. Marshall's achievement highlights the dedication required to overcome obstacles and pursue goals that many might consider beyond reach.

The Marine Corps Marathon, renowned for its patriotic atmosphere, enthusiastic spectators and scenic course through the nation's capital, provided a memorable setting for the record-breaking performance. As thousands of runners pursued their own finish-line goals, Marshall carved out a special place in the event's history with his remarkable effort.

Beyond the record itself, Marshall's achievement carries a message that resonates far beyond the running community. Every movement toward the finish line required determination, patience and an unwavering commitment to the challenge before him. His performance is a reminder that greatness is not measured solely by how quickly someone reaches a destination, but also by the courage it takes to pursue a goal despite the difficulties along the way. For aspiring athletes and anyone facing personal challenges, his accomplishment offers a powerful lesson in perseverance, self-belief and the importance of refusing to give up when the journey becomes difficult.

His performance also serves as a reminder that marathon running is about far more than finishing times and podium positions. It is a test of courage, commitment and the willingness to redefine personal limits. Marshall's accomplishment demonstrates that the spirit of distance running extends beyond conventional expectations, inspiring athletes and spectators alike to reconsider what is possible through determination and hard work.

Marshall's remarkable run also reinforces the inclusive spirit of distance running, where the finish line belongs to everyone willing to take on the challenge. Whether competing for a championship, chasing a personal best or simply striving to complete the distance, every runner has a story worth celebrating. By setting a world record on crutches at one of America's prominent marathon events, Marshall has added an unforgettable chapter to that story, encouraging others to look beyond perceived limitations and pursue their ambitions with renewed confidence.

For Marshall, the 5:35:50 finish represents more than a time on the clock. It marks an extraordinary personal achievement and a moment that celebrates perseverance, resilience and the determination to keep moving forward. His performance has brought renewed attention to the remarkable possibilities within endurance sport and the many different ways athletes can challenge expectations.

Marshall's achievement at the Marine Corps Marathon stands as a powerful testament to the human spirit, demonstrating that success is not always about having the easiest path, but about finding the strength to keep going. His 5:35:50 performance is a reminder that the finish line can represent much more than the completion of a race: it can symbolise courage, possibility and the extraordinary things people can accomplish when they refuse to give up.

The 23rd edition of the Standard Chartered Nairobi Marathon delivered a spectacular celebration of endurance, determination and competitive excellence on Sunday, October 25, 2026, as Abraham Kiptum and Mercy Kandie Rotich claimed the men's and women's 42km titles in a memorable showcase of Kenyan road-running talent.

With thousands of runners taking to Nairobi's Southern Bypass, the full marathon provided a compelling test of physical strength, tactical discipline and mental resilience. For the elite athletes at the front, every kilometre presented an opportunity to gain an advantage, while the demanding distance required unwavering concentration from the starting gun to the finish line at Uhuru Gardens.

In the men's race, Kiptum produced an impressive performance to secure victory in 2:10:35, narrowly missing the course record by just 23 seconds. The 37-year-old Kenyan demonstrated his experience and endurance throughout the contest, ultimately establishing himself as the strongest performer over the 42.195-kilometre distance.

Kiptum's victory was particularly significant given his recent return to competitive marathon running. The athlete from Kapsabet had continued rebuilding his career and arrived in Nairobi following victory at the CRDB International Marathon in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in August. His latest triumph provided another encouraging chapter in his return to the forefront of distance running.

The men's contest produced an exceptionally close battle for the remaining podium positions. Fellow Kenyan Amos Kipkemoi Cheruiyot finished second in 2:10:37, just two seconds behind the champion, while Mark Kibiwott secured third place in 2:11:05.

Dismas Kiplimo finished fourth in 2:11:15, followed by Henry Kiprono Togom, who completed the top five in 2:11:55. The depth of the leading performances underlined the quality of competition on a morning when the front-runners pushed each other towards impressive finishing times.

Kiptum's performance also highlighted the importance of consistency and preparation in marathon running. Having invested months in training, the experienced Kenyan delivered when it mattered most, navigating the course with the composure required to emerge victorious against a competitive field.

The women's 42km race was equally captivating, with Mercy Kandie Rotich claiming the championship in 2:31:25 after a determined performance over the challenging distance.

Rotich demonstrated resilience and composure as the race unfolded, maintaining her challenge through the later stages before securing the victory. Her performance earned her a place among the latest champions of one of Kenya's prominent annual road-running events.

The battle for the women's title was decided by the narrowest of margins. Peris Jerono finished second in 2:31:27, only two seconds behind Rotich, while Ruth Wakabu completed the podium in 2:31:36. The three leading women finished within just 11 seconds of one another, providing a dramatic conclusion to the contest.

Shyline Jepkorir placed fourth in 2:34:55, while Dorothy Kipkilach finished fifth in 2:36:38, rounding out the leading performers in the women's division.

The narrow margins between the leading athletes reflected the unpredictable nature of marathon racing, where pacing, endurance and the ability to respond under pressure can determine the outcome after more than 42 kilometres of competition.

Beyond the podium battles, the full marathon represented a celebration of the determination that defines long-distance running. Every athlete who took on the distance faced the challenge of managing energy, overcoming fatigue and maintaining the mental strength necessary to reach the finish line.

The Southern Bypass provided the setting for these performances, with the runners navigating the Nairobi course before completing their challenge at Uhuru Gardens. The event brought together elite competitors and recreational athletes, united by the ambition to test their limits over the classic marathon distance.

The 2026 edition once again demonstrated the enduring appeal of road racing in Kenya, a country internationally recognised for producing exceptional distance runners. It also offered a platform for athletes to pursue personal ambitions, compete for prestigious honours and showcase the depth of talent within Kenyan athletics.

For Kiptum and Rotich, however, the day belonged to the pursuit of victory. Their respective performances secured them the coveted men's and women's marathon crowns, while the fiercely contested podium finishes ensured that the 42km races delivered the drama and excitement expected of a major road-running championship.

As the 23rd Standard Chartered Nairobi Marathon concluded, the achievements of the two champions stood out as the defining moments of the full-marathon competition, celebrating not only speed and endurance but also the preparation, perseverance and competitive spirit required to conquer 42.195 kilometres.

The true spirit of marathon running was beautifully displayed at the 2026 Mainova Frankfurt Marathon, where the celebration extended far beyond the elite athletes who crossed the finish line first. In a heartwarming tradition, the race's men's and women's champions waited inside the historic Festhalle Frankfurt to welcome the final finisher, reminding the world that every marathon journey deserves recognition.

As the final runner entered the magnificent venue, the atmosphere transformed into an unforgettable celebration. Confetti filled the air as music, dazzling lights and a red-carpet welcome created a moment usually associated with the sport's biggest stars. Standing alongside the champions, the last finisher received a hero's reception, demonstrating that the achievement of completing a marathon deserves to be celebrated regardless of finishing position.

Ethiopia's Jirata Lelisa Dinki, who won the men's race in an impressive 2:05:26, and compatriot Zeineba Yimer Worku, the women's champion in 2:19:45, were among those celebrating the final runner's remarkable achievement.

Their presence sent a powerful message about the values that make marathon running special. While elite athletes push the limits of human performance in pursuit of victory and fast times, thousands of other runners take on the same 42.195-kilometre challenge for deeply personal reasons. For some, the goal is to achieve a personal best; for others, it is to overcome adversity, fulfil a lifelong ambition or simply reach the finish line.

The final finisher's journey may have taken longer than that of the champions, but the determination required to keep moving forward deserves equal admiration. Every kilometre represents effort, sacrifice and perseverance, and crossing the finish line marks the successful completion of a challenge that demands both physical endurance and mental strength.

Frankfurt's special welcome captured an essential truth about distance running: a marathon is not only a race against the clock but also a personal battle against exhaustion, doubt and the temptation to give up. By waiting for the final runner, the champions helped ensure that the day's celebrations included someone whose achievement might otherwise have gone unnoticed.

In a sport often defined by world records, course records and podium finishes, this touching tradition offers a refreshing reminder that the value of a marathon cannot be measured by time alone. The fastest runners may make headlines for their performances, but every finisher has a story worth telling.

At the Mainova Frankfurt Marathon, the champions had already conquered their own challenges. Yet their decision to welcome the last runner created another memorable moment, showing that greatness in sport is measured not only by what athletes accomplish but also by the respect they show others.

Because when the final runner receives the same warmth, applause and celebration as the champions, the message is unmistakable: every runner matters, every finish line represents an achievement, and nobody should be left behind when it is time to celebrate.