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“Predictive processing” offers novel ways to think about sports psychology, the limits of endurance, and the urge to explore.

If you read popular science books about the brain, you might have encountered a new “grand theory” called predictive processing. If you haven’t yet, you will. Over the last two decades, it has gone from obscure idea to increasingly dominant paradigm. And it’s such a broad and all-encompassing theory that it seemingly has something to say about everything: how the brain works, why it’s structured the way it is, what that means for how we perceive the world—but also horror movies, mental health, cancer cells, and perhaps even endurance sports and adventure.

I’ve been trying to get my head around predictive processing for five or six years now. It can get complicated if you dig into the mathematical details. But I recently read a book called The Experience Machine: How Our Minds Predict and Shape Reality that does a good job of conveying the theory’s essence in an accessible way. It came out last year and is by Andy Clark, a cognitive philosopher at the University of Sussex who is one of the theory’s leading proponents. The book got me thinking about how predictive processing applies to some of the areas of science that I’m most interested in.

Here, then, is a very rough guide to predictive processing—still a speculative and unproven theory at this point, but an intriguing one—from the Sweat Science perspective.

Normally, we assume that you see the world as it is. Light bounces off the objects around you and into your eyes; the receptors in your eyes send signals to your brain; your brain makes sense of those incoming signals and concludes that, say, there’s a snake on the path. Predictive processing flips the script. Your brain starts by making a prediction of what it expects to see; it sends that prediction out toward your eyes, where the predictions are compared with incoming signals. If there’s any discrepancy between the outgoing predictions and the incoming signals, you update your predictions. Maybe it turns out that it’s a stick on the path, even though at first glance you could have sworn it was a snake.

This is actually a very old idea. It’s often attributed, in a basic form, to Hermann von Helmholtz, a nineteenth-century German scientist. Modern neuroscience pushes the idea farther and offers some clues that it’s true: for example, there are more neural connections leading from the brain to sensory organs like the eyes than there are carrying information from the senses back to the brain. Those outgoing signals are presumably carrying the brain’s predictions to the senses. What we see (and hear and smell and so on), in this picture, is basically a controlled hallucination that is periodically fact-checked by the senses.

What I find particularly intriguing about predictive processing is that there’s a deeper mathematical layer. A British scientist named Karl Friston, who pioneered several brain imaging techniques in the 1990s and is by several measures the most-cited neuroscientist ever, has proposed an idea called the free energy principle. All life, Friston argues, has an essential drive to minimize surprise—which is related to a mathematical quantity, borrowed from physics, called free energy—in order to ensure its continued survival. The resulting equations are beautiful but famously inscrutable. If you’re interested, the best introduction I’ve found is in a free e-book published in 2022 by Friston and two colleagues called Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. The important point, though, is that these equations lead to the qualitative picture I described above, of the brain as a prediction machine.

In The Experience Machine, Clark lays out some examples of why this idea matters. Mental health conditions like depression and anxiety may relate to glitches in how the brain updates its predictions; the aesthetic chills you get from great art or horror movies may signal that we’ve encountered “critical new information that resolves important uncertainties”—a physiological “aha” moment. But what does all this tell us about endurance?

The athlete-related topic that Clark addresses most directly in his book is sports psychology. For example, he has a section on the power of self-affirmation, in which the positive words you say to yourself alter your brain’s predictions, which in turns alters your actions in performance-boosting ways. I’ve written a bunch of times about the effects of motivational self-talk on endurance. I’m fascinated by the evidence that it works, but struggle to reconcile it with my mechanistic understanding of how the body works. Predictive processing offers a new way of understanding the science of self-talk.

The key point is that our brains aren’t just predicting the present; they’re also simulating the future, to minimize unexpected surprises. If we expect to feel pain, fatigue, doubt, or even hunger, those predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies—just as, if you’re wandering through the rainforest, you’re more likely to mistake a stick for a snake than if you’re walking down Fifth Avenue. I remember, a decade ago, puzzling over the results of a study that fed people milkshakes and found that their appetite hormones responded differently depending on whether they were told it was an “indulgent” shake or a “sensible” one. How could appetite hormones respond to words? Through the predictions sent from the brain to the gut.

Clark has a long discussion of placebos, but the most unexpected suggestion he makes is a way of improving sports performance “in a rather sneaky manner.” One of the interesting facts about placebos is that the response can be trained. If you give a real, clinically effective drug to someone repeatedly, their brain will eventually begin predicting the response more and more strongly. During the Second World War, nurses who were running short of morphine sometimes injected saline instead; it turns out that, if the patients had been receiving morphine regularly, their bodies (and brains) responded to the saline injection in a similar way.

Clark proposes training an athlete with a drug that is banned in competition (like stimulants), then giving them a placebo version when they actually race. In theory, this should generate a stronger placebo response than you’d normally get. For the record, I don’t think this is consistent with what the World Anti-Doping Agency calls “the spirit of sport,” but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

What first sparked my interest in predictive processing was an email from a reader after my book Endure came out in 2018. I’d written about how our expectations of how a race will feel at any given point affects how hard we feel we’re able to push, based on theories from Ross Tucker and other researchers. Predictive processing, the emailer suggested, might have something to say on the topic.

I think that’s true. As you gain experience, you develop a pretty good idea of what you’ll feel like halfway through a 5K. If you feel better or worse than expected, that generates a prediction error. There are two ways of fixing prediction errors. One is to update your beliefs: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard at this point in the race, but it feels hard, so I’ll adjust my internal prediction. The other is to adjust your actions: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard, so I’ll slow down until it feels medium-hard. The second strategy is what Friston calls active inference.

Why is it that we generally adjust our pace rather than our beliefs when we’re racing? I’m not sure, but I wonder whether predictive processing will suggest some new ways of probing this longstanding question.

There’s a puzzle in predictive processing called the Dark Room problem. If the free energy principle demands that we minimize surprise, why don’t we just lock ourselves in a dark room until we starve to death? One way of answering this question is to recall that we’re not just trying to minimize present surprise; we’re also trying to minimize surprise in the future. And the best way of avoiding future surprises is to learn as much as possible about the world and how it works.

Predictive processing, in other words, wires us to seek out the unknown in order to learn about it, as a way of minimizing future surprise. This is a different way of thinking about why we like venturing into the wilderness, undertaking challenges like running a marathon, and traveling to unfamiliar places. This is an idea I’m digging deeper into for a forthcoming book on the science of exploring.

Does expressing these ideas in the language of predictive processing actually change anything? That remains to be seen. I’ve talked to some scientists over the past few years who view it as genuinely new, and others who view it more as new words for familiar ideas.

The most practical suggestion that I’ve seen comes from an Israeli scientist named Moshe Bar, who wrote a book called Mindwandering in 2022. Bar’s big idea is that we have what he calls “overarching states of mind” that reflect the degree to which we’re focusing on the “top-down” predictions generated by our brains versus the “bottom-up” observations from our senses.

When we put more weight on predictions, we become more narrowly focused on a given task; when we put more weight on sensory data, we have broader attention, are more inclined to explore, and have a more positive mood. By “zooming out”—thinking about the big picture or the future, talking to ourselves in second person—we can shift the dial toward sensory input and loosen the grip that our predictions sometimes exert on us.

Admittedly, all of this sounds a bit esoteric. But the more I read about predictive processing, and the more I talk to scientists who are developing these ideas, the more I’m convinced that there’s something interesting here. Exactly where all this will lead—well, that’s hard to predict.

Melissa Jefferson-Wooden delivered a sensational performance in Budapest, storming to victory in the women’s 100m at the inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championship in a breathtaking 10.62 seconds.

The American produced a superb display of acceleration and composure to claim the World Ultimate Championship title while recording the fastest women’s 100m time in the world this year. Her 10.62 mark underlined her exceptional form and placed her firmly at the top of the global sprinting hierarchy.

Jefferson-Wooden controlled the race through the decisive stages and maintained her form all the way to the finish to secure a statement victory against a field packed with championship pedigree. She crossed the line ahead of Olympic champion Julien Alfred, who clocked 10.74 seconds with a -0.2 m/s wind, while Sha’Carri Richardson took third in 10.76.

Women’s 100m Final

1. Melissa Jefferson-Wooden — 10.62

2. Julien Alfred — 10.74 (-0.2 m/s)

3. Sha’Carri Richardson — 10.76

The victory was especially significant given the quality of the opposition. Jefferson-Wooden held her nerve against Alfred and Richardson, two of the most accomplished sprinters of the current generation, to produce the fastest performance in the world this year when it mattered most.

Alfred once again demonstrated her consistency at the highest level by taking silver, while Richardson completed an all-star podium in a race that brought together three of the biggest names in women’s sprinting.

But beyond the time, the title and the celebration, one of the most touching moments came after the race when Jefferson-Wooden embraced her father, Melvin, in an emotional celebration.

Their moment carried a deeply personal meaning. When Melissa was just 17 years old, she donated her stem cells to help her father undergo a bone marrow transplant after he was diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndrome. Years later, the two shared an unforgettable embrace in Budapest after she had become the World Ultimate Champion.

For Jefferson-Wooden, however, the evening was about far more than a medal. It was the culmination of an extraordinary journey, now highlighted by a world-leading 10.62 seconds on one of the biggest stages in athletics.

With the Ultimate Championship title secured and her father by her side, Jefferson-Wooden leaves Budapest with more than being an ultimate champion. She leaves with momentum, confidence and a powerful statement of intent — turning a high-profile showdown into one of the defining sprint performances of her season.

Audrey Werro has added another major title to her extraordinary season, storming to victory in the women’s 800m at the inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championships in Budapest.

The Swiss star delivered a commanding performance, taking control from the opening gun and refusing to surrender the lead as she powered through an absorbing battle against two of the biggest names in the event.

Werro stopped the clock at 1:55.88 to become the Ultimate Championships 800m champion, producing another statement performance on one of the sport’s newest and most prestigious stages.

Behind her, Great Britain’s Keely Hodgkinson fought her way to second in 1:56.26, while the Netherlands’ Femke Broeders-Bol completed the podium in 1:56.74.

The result once again brought together the same formidable trio that featured on the podium at the European Championships, but Werro again proved to be the athlete who could rise above the challenge when it mattered most.

Her Budapest triumph is the latest chapter in a season that has already included records, a successful Diamond League Trophy defence and European Championship gold. Now, she can add the Ultimate Championships crown to a growing list of accomplishments.

Werro’s consistency has been particularly impressive in an 800m event packed with elite talent. Rather than simply relying on a fast finish, the Swiss athlete showed her authority by taking the initiative from the beginning and maintaining enough strength and composure to hold off Hodgkinson and Broeders-Bol all the way to the line.

The victory also underlined the remarkable depth of the women’s 800m, with three athletes separated by less than a second at the finish. Hodgkinson’s 1:56.26 and Broeders-Bol’s 1:56.74 showed just how fiercely contested the race was, but Werro’s decision to dictate the pace ultimately gave her the decisive advantage.

For Werro, this was more than another medal. It was another opportunity to demonstrate that her rise is no passing moment. On a stage featuring established champions and elite rivals, she once again produced the performance required to claim the biggest prize.

For Hodgkinson, the silver medal adds another major podium finish, while Broeders-Bol once again demonstrated her ability to compete with the very best over two laps.

But the spotlight in Budapest belonged unmistakably to Werro.

With another championship crown secured, the Swiss star has strengthened her claim as the athlete setting the standard in women’s 800m running. This is Audrey Werro’s era — and the rest of the field is chasing.

Busang Collen Kebinatshipi has delivered another sensational performance, storming to victory in the men’s 400m at the inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championship in Budapest.

The reigning world champion stopped the clock at an astonishing 43.39 seconds, smashing his own Botswana national record and moving to fifth on the world all-time list.

Kebinatshipi produced a commanding finish to pull away from his rivals and secure the Ultimate Championship title. American star Rai Benjamin finished second in 44.15, while Jereem Richards of Trinidad and Tobago completed the podium in 44.23.

 Men’s 400m

1. Busang Collen Kebinatshipi — 43.39 NR

2. Rai Benjamin — 44.15

3. Jereem Richards — 44.23

The performance is even more remarkable considering that Kebinatshipi had already rewritten the Botswana record just one week ago in Brussels, where he ran 43.40. In Budapest, he lowered that mark by another 0.01 seconds to establish a new national record of 43.39.

That improvement has also propelled the 22-year-old into rare territory. His latest time now ranks him fifth fastest in history over 400m, placing him among an extraordinary group of athletes who have broken the 43.40 barrier.

Kebinatshipi's victory also caps an extraordinary season for the Botswana star. After establishing himself as a global champion, he has continued to demonstrate that he belongs among the very best one-lap runners in the world.

And there is a major reward for his historic night in Budapest: Kebinatshipi walks away as the Ultimate Champion and $150,000 richer.

From another national record to a place among the five fastest 400m runners ever, Kebinatshipi has turned an already remarkable season into something truly special.

Botswana has its latest sprinting superstar — and Kebinatshipi is showing that his ceiling may be even higher than anyone imagined. 

Marileidy Paulino once again proved why she is the undisputed queen of the one-lap event, powering to victory in the women’s 400m at the inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championship in Budapest.

The Dominican Republic superstar produced a sensational 49.07 seconds to claim gold, pulling decisively away in the final straight and holding off a fiercely competitive field to extend her remarkable unbeaten run.

Paulino delivered her trademark combination of controlled speed and devastating finishing strength. She remained firmly in contention through the opening stages before unleashing her decisive move down the home straight, where she quickly opened a gap on her closest challengers.

Norway’s Henriette Jæger mounted a strong challenge but could not match Paulino’s finishing speed, crossing the line second in an impressive 49.28. Jamaica’s Nickisha Pryce completed the podium after clocking 49.56, ensuring that three of the world’s leading 400m talents occupied the medals.

The result once again underlined Paulino’s extraordinary consistency at the highest level. She entered Budapest as the world leader after running 48.48 in Paris in June, a performance that also set a Diamond League record. She subsequently remained unbeaten throughout her Diamond League campaign, closing the circuit with a meeting-record 48.64 in Brussels.

Budapest has also become a special venue in Paulino’s career. Three years ago, at the same National Athletics Centre, she captured her first individual world title, marking the beginning of another dominant chapter in her career. She later added Olympic gold in Paris in 2024, further establishing herself among the defining 400m athletes of her generation.

The inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championship has brought together the sport’s biggest stars in a new winner-takes-the-spotlight format, with Olympic and world champions, Diamond League winners and leading performers competing for ultimate honours.

For Paulino, the occasion once again ended with Ultimate Crown on her arms.

With 49.07 seconds, she did more than win another major 400m title. She delivered another statement of authority, powering through the final straight with the confidence and speed that have made her one of the most dominant figures in modern women’s athletics.

Marileidy Paulino remains unbeaten, remains relentless and, once again, remains the queen of the one lap.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen has made a major decision regarding the remainder of his World Athletics Ultimate Championship campaign, confirming that he will withdraw from the men’s 1500m in Budapest despite producing a sensational performance to win the 5,000m title.

The Norwegian superstar stormed to victory in the inaugural Ultimate Championship 5,000m on Friday night, clocking a season-best 12:59.24 and delivering a devastating finishing kick to defeat Olympic 5,000m champion Cole Hocker and American Parker Wolfe.

Ingebrigtsen’s final 100 metres was arguably the defining moment of the race. The Olympic champion produced a remarkable 12.60-second closing 100m, powering away from the field to secure the $150,000 winner’s prize and underline just how far his fitness has progressed since returning from Achilles surgery.

The victory was particularly significant after what has been an extremely difficult period for the 25-year-old. Earlier in the season, Ingebrigtsen faced serious uncertainty over whether he would even be able to compete at the highest level again. His return has gradually gathered momentum, and his performance in Budapest offered perhaps the clearest indication yet that the Norwegian is rediscovering his formidable racing ability.

But rather than risk pushing his recovering body further, Ingebrigtsen has now opted to step away from the 1500m.

The decision means the highly anticipated showdown with British rival Josh Kerr will not take place in Budapest after all. The two stars had been expected to renew one of the biggest rivalries in modern middle-distance running in the 1500m final.

Instead, Ingebrigtsen is looking beyond the immediate opportunity and towards the bigger picture.

“I’m thinking about 2027… Fitness cannot be faked,” the Norwegian said, signalling that protecting his long-term condition has become more important than chasing another major victory only days after his return to peak-level competition.

The decision comes just one week after an emotionally charged Diamond League Final in Brussels, where Ingebrigtsen finished fourth in the 1500m behind Australia’s Cameron Myers, Kenya’s Phanuel Kipkosgei Koech and American Ethan Strand.

After that race, Ingebrigtsen delivered a fiery assessment of his rivals and questioned the tactics surrounding the pacemaking, particularly involving Hocker. He later acknowledged that there had been “a little too much adrenaline and emotion” when microphones were placed in front of him immediately after the race.

Yet his latest decision shows that beneath the emotion and competitive intensity lies a longer-term strategy.

Ingebrigtsen has already demonstrated that he can compete at an elite level again. His 12:59.24 in Budapest was not simply a victory — it was a statement that the Norwegian remains capable of producing a world-class finish even after months of injury rehabilitation.

Now, however, he is choosing not to gamble with that progress.

For a runner who has spent much of the year fighting his way back from injury, another 1500m race could have offered enormous rewards but also carried unnecessary risk. By withdrawing, Ingebrigtsen is effectively prioritising longevity over one more opportunity for immediate glory.

His message is clear: the comeback is underway, but it will not be rushed.

The 5,000m victory has given Ingebrigtsen confidence, momentum and perhaps, most importantly, proof that his body can once again handle elite competition.

Now comes the harder part — knowing when to stop.

With 2027 already firmly in his sights, the Norwegian has chosen recovery over risk. And after everything he has endured, that could ultimately prove to be one of the most important decisions of his comeback.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen is not walking away from the sport. He is protecting his future in it.