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“Predictive processing” offers novel ways to think about sports psychology, the limits of endurance, and the urge to explore.

If you read popular science books about the brain, you might have encountered a new “grand theory” called predictive processing. If you haven’t yet, you will. Over the last two decades, it has gone from obscure idea to increasingly dominant paradigm. And it’s such a broad and all-encompassing theory that it seemingly has something to say about everything: how the brain works, why it’s structured the way it is, what that means for how we perceive the world—but also horror movies, mental health, cancer cells, and perhaps even endurance sports and adventure.

I’ve been trying to get my head around predictive processing for five or six years now. It can get complicated if you dig into the mathematical details. But I recently read a book called The Experience Machine: How Our Minds Predict and Shape Reality that does a good job of conveying the theory’s essence in an accessible way. It came out last year and is by Andy Clark, a cognitive philosopher at the University of Sussex who is one of the theory’s leading proponents. The book got me thinking about how predictive processing applies to some of the areas of science that I’m most interested in.

Here, then, is a very rough guide to predictive processing—still a speculative and unproven theory at this point, but an intriguing one—from the Sweat Science perspective.

Normally, we assume that you see the world as it is. Light bounces off the objects around you and into your eyes; the receptors in your eyes send signals to your brain; your brain makes sense of those incoming signals and concludes that, say, there’s a snake on the path. Predictive processing flips the script. Your brain starts by making a prediction of what it expects to see; it sends that prediction out toward your eyes, where the predictions are compared with incoming signals. If there’s any discrepancy between the outgoing predictions and the incoming signals, you update your predictions. Maybe it turns out that it’s a stick on the path, even though at first glance you could have sworn it was a snake.

This is actually a very old idea. It’s often attributed, in a basic form, to Hermann von Helmholtz, a nineteenth-century German scientist. Modern neuroscience pushes the idea farther and offers some clues that it’s true: for example, there are more neural connections leading from the brain to sensory organs like the eyes than there are carrying information from the senses back to the brain. Those outgoing signals are presumably carrying the brain’s predictions to the senses. What we see (and hear and smell and so on), in this picture, is basically a controlled hallucination that is periodically fact-checked by the senses.

What I find particularly intriguing about predictive processing is that there’s a deeper mathematical layer. A British scientist named Karl Friston, who pioneered several brain imaging techniques in the 1990s and is by several measures the most-cited neuroscientist ever, has proposed an idea called the free energy principle. All life, Friston argues, has an essential drive to minimize surprise—which is related to a mathematical quantity, borrowed from physics, called free energy—in order to ensure its continued survival. The resulting equations are beautiful but famously inscrutable. If you’re interested, the best introduction I’ve found is in a free e-book published in 2022 by Friston and two colleagues called Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. The important point, though, is that these equations lead to the qualitative picture I described above, of the brain as a prediction machine.

In The Experience Machine, Clark lays out some examples of why this idea matters. Mental health conditions like depression and anxiety may relate to glitches in how the brain updates its predictions; the aesthetic chills you get from great art or horror movies may signal that we’ve encountered “critical new information that resolves important uncertainties”—a physiological “aha” moment. But what does all this tell us about endurance?

The athlete-related topic that Clark addresses most directly in his book is sports psychology. For example, he has a section on the power of self-affirmation, in which the positive words you say to yourself alter your brain’s predictions, which in turns alters your actions in performance-boosting ways. I’ve written a bunch of times about the effects of motivational self-talk on endurance. I’m fascinated by the evidence that it works, but struggle to reconcile it with my mechanistic understanding of how the body works. Predictive processing offers a new way of understanding the science of self-talk.

The key point is that our brains aren’t just predicting the present; they’re also simulating the future, to minimize unexpected surprises. If we expect to feel pain, fatigue, doubt, or even hunger, those predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies—just as, if you’re wandering through the rainforest, you’re more likely to mistake a stick for a snake than if you’re walking down Fifth Avenue. I remember, a decade ago, puzzling over the results of a study that fed people milkshakes and found that their appetite hormones responded differently depending on whether they were told it was an “indulgent” shake or a “sensible” one. How could appetite hormones respond to words? Through the predictions sent from the brain to the gut.

Clark has a long discussion of placebos, but the most unexpected suggestion he makes is a way of improving sports performance “in a rather sneaky manner.” One of the interesting facts about placebos is that the response can be trained. If you give a real, clinically effective drug to someone repeatedly, their brain will eventually begin predicting the response more and more strongly. During the Second World War, nurses who were running short of morphine sometimes injected saline instead; it turns out that, if the patients had been receiving morphine regularly, their bodies (and brains) responded to the saline injection in a similar way.

Clark proposes training an athlete with a drug that is banned in competition (like stimulants), then giving them a placebo version when they actually race. In theory, this should generate a stronger placebo response than you’d normally get. For the record, I don’t think this is consistent with what the World Anti-Doping Agency calls “the spirit of sport,” but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

What first sparked my interest in predictive processing was an email from a reader after my book Endure came out in 2018. I’d written about how our expectations of how a race will feel at any given point affects how hard we feel we’re able to push, based on theories from Ross Tucker and other researchers. Predictive processing, the emailer suggested, might have something to say on the topic.

I think that’s true. As you gain experience, you develop a pretty good idea of what you’ll feel like halfway through a 5K. If you feel better or worse than expected, that generates a prediction error. There are two ways of fixing prediction errors. One is to update your beliefs: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard at this point in the race, but it feels hard, so I’ll adjust my internal prediction. The other is to adjust your actions: I thought this pace would feel medium-hard, so I’ll slow down until it feels medium-hard. The second strategy is what Friston calls active inference.

Why is it that we generally adjust our pace rather than our beliefs when we’re racing? I’m not sure, but I wonder whether predictive processing will suggest some new ways of probing this longstanding question.

There’s a puzzle in predictive processing called the Dark Room problem. If the free energy principle demands that we minimize surprise, why don’t we just lock ourselves in a dark room until we starve to death? One way of answering this question is to recall that we’re not just trying to minimize present surprise; we’re also trying to minimize surprise in the future. And the best way of avoiding future surprises is to learn as much as possible about the world and how it works.

Predictive processing, in other words, wires us to seek out the unknown in order to learn about it, as a way of minimizing future surprise. This is a different way of thinking about why we like venturing into the wilderness, undertaking challenges like running a marathon, and traveling to unfamiliar places. This is an idea I’m digging deeper into for a forthcoming book on the science of exploring.

Does expressing these ideas in the language of predictive processing actually change anything? That remains to be seen. I’ve talked to some scientists over the past few years who view it as genuinely new, and others who view it more as new words for familiar ideas.

The most practical suggestion that I’ve seen comes from an Israeli scientist named Moshe Bar, who wrote a book called Mindwandering in 2022. Bar’s big idea is that we have what he calls “overarching states of mind” that reflect the degree to which we’re focusing on the “top-down” predictions generated by our brains versus the “bottom-up” observations from our senses.

When we put more weight on predictions, we become more narrowly focused on a given task; when we put more weight on sensory data, we have broader attention, are more inclined to explore, and have a more positive mood. By “zooming out”—thinking about the big picture or the future, talking to ourselves in second person—we can shift the dial toward sensory input and loosen the grip that our predictions sometimes exert on us.

Admittedly, all of this sounds a bit esoteric. But the more I read about predictive processing, and the more I talk to scientists who are developing these ideas, the more I’m convinced that there’s something interesting here. Exactly where all this will lead—well, that’s hard to predict.

Ethiopia delivered a remarkable double victory at the 2026 Bank of China Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Half Marathon on Sunday, November 15, with Wede Kefale and Addisu Gobena emerging victorious in the women's and men's races respectively.

Staged along the spectacular Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, the event brought together some of the finest distance runners from Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa and other nations for a fiercely contested 21.097-kilometre challenge across one of the world's most recognisable sea-crossing structures.

The competition produced impressive performances, with Ethiopia showcasing its depth in distance running while Kenyan athletes also secured several places among the leading finishers.

In the women's contest, Kefale produced a composed and determined performance to secure the biggest prize of the day. She crossed the finish line in 1:09:01, holding off a strong challenge from South Africa's Glenrose Xaba, who finished second in 1:09:09. Ethiopia's Fantu Worku completed the podium in 1:09:14, making it an exceptionally close battle among the leading three women, who were separated by just 13 seconds.

The Ethiopian victory was particularly impressive given the quality of the field. Xaba, one of South Africa's leading distance runners, pushed hard throughout the contest but ultimately had to settle for second, while Worku demonstrated Ethiopia's remarkable strength by securing another podium position.

Kefale's victory was supported by an impressive Ethiopian presence throughout the top 10. Baraky Redae finished fourth in 1:09:51, followed by compatriot Asmarech Anley in fifth with 1:10:21. Kenya's Miriam Chebet was sixth in 1:11:05, ahead of Morocco's Fatima Ezzahra Birdaha, who clocked 1:11:23. Kazakhstan's Daisy Jepkemei placed eighth in 1:11:42, while Ethiopia's Zewudie Wudu finished ninth in 1:12:08. Kenya's Priscah Jepleting Cherono completed the top 10 in 1:12:29.

The men's race provided another memorable moment for Ethiopia as 22-year-old Addisu Gobena claimed the overall victory, He clocked 1:01:33 to finish ahead of compatriot Aliyi Kasim, who secured second place in 1:02:29.

Kenya's Alex Lenalepisho delivered a strong performance to take third in 1:02:47, preventing a complete Ethiopian sweep of the men's podium. Morocco's Othmane El Goumri finished fourth in 1:03:07, while Kenya's Abel Kiplimo followed in fifth with 1:03:33

Kenyan representation remained particularly strong throughout the men's top 10. Ezra Kipketer Tanui finished sixth in 1:05:32, followed by Ethiopia's Tafere Adisu in seventh with 1:05:35. Kenya's Meshack Kipchirchir placed eighth in 1:06:01, Benard Kipkorir was ninth in 1:06:15, and compatriot Sena Ledama completed the top 10 in 1:06:21.

Gobena's triumph adds another impressive achievement to Ethiopia's growing presence on the international road-running circuit, while the performances of Kasim and Lenalepisho underlined the competitive depth of the men's field.

The 2026 edition was also significant for the event itself, having earned World Athletics Platinum Label status, placing it among the highest-rated road-running competitions internationally. The bridge provided a spectacular setting for the contest, bringing together elite athletes from different countries for a memorable day of long-distance racing. 

Beyond the podium, the results highlighted the international character of the competition, with athletes from Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, Morocco and Kazakhstan featuring prominently in the leading positions.

Ethiopia therefore left Hong Kong with both overall titles, while Kenya had plenty of reasons to take encouragement from its strong representation across both races.

For the organisers, the successful staging of this Platinum Label competition represents another important milestone in the development of road running in Hong Kong. For the athletes, it was an opportunity to test themselves against international opposition on a distinctive course that offered a memorable backdrop to the racing.

American sprint sensation Noah Lyles could be preparing to chase one of the most extraordinary achievements in athletics history after dropping a tantalising hint about his ambitions for the 2027 World Athletics Championships in Beijing, China.

The four-time world 200m champion has sparked excitement among athletics fans after sharing a cryptic message on social media reading “4x ? 2027”, raising speculation that he could be targeting an unprecedented four gold medals when the global championships return to the iconic Bird’s Nest Stadium.

Although Lyles has yet to confirm exactly which events he intends to contest, the possibility of a four-event campaign has become particularly intriguing following World Athletics’ announcement that the mixed 4x100m relay will make its World Championships debut in Beijing.

Such an opportunity could open the door for the American superstar to compete for gold in the men's 100m, 200m, men's 4x100m relay and the newly introduced mixed 4x100m relay.

For Lyles, Beijing could represent much more than another opportunity to add to his impressive collection of championship medals. It could be the stage where he attempts to establish himself as the most successful male athlete in World Athletics Championships history.

The 100m would undoubtedly be one of his biggest attractions. Having claimed the world title in Budapest in 2023 before completing his remarkable rise to Olympic glory at the Paris 2024 Games, Lyles knows exactly what it takes to rule the world's premier sprinting stage. However, he will be eager to reclaim the global crown after settling for bronze behind compatriots in the 2025 World Championships in Tokyo.

The 200m, meanwhile, remains his strongest territory. Lyles has established an extraordinary legacy over the half-lap distance, winning four consecutive World Championships titles in 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2025. In Tokyo, he matched Usain Bolt's remarkable achievement of four successive world 200m crowns, further strengthening his reputation as one of the greatest performers the event has ever witnessed.

His ambitions would also extend to the relays, where he has repeatedly demonstrated his value to Team USA. Lyles has already collected four World Championships gold medals in the men's 4x100m relay, including victories in 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2025. Another successful campaign in Beijing would provide an opportunity to add to that impressive record.

The introduction of the mixed 4x100m relay could make the challenge even more fascinating. With the event officially scheduled to make its World Championships debut in Beijing, the competition will offer another opportunity for the world's leading sprinters to showcase their speed on the global stage.

Beyond the possibility of four gold medals, however, there is an even bigger historical prize waiting for Lyles.

The American currently boasts eight World Athletics Championships gold medals. Winning four more in Beijing would take his career tally to 12, moving him beyond Jamaican sprint legend Usain Bolt, whose 11 world titles remain the benchmark for male athletes in the competition's history.

That would be a remarkable achievement for an athlete who has never hidden his admiration for Bolt and his desire to reach the heights established by the Jamaican legend.

Interestingly, the Bird's Nest Stadium carries its own special place in sprinting history. It was at the same venue during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games that Bolt announced himself to the world with his breathtaking performances in the 100m, 200m and 4x100m relay. Nearly two decades later, the iconic stadium could provide the setting for another extraordinary chapter in sprinting history.

For Lyles, the challenge will be enormous. Successfully navigating four demanding events, managing the competition schedule and delivering at the highest level across individual and relay races would require exceptional preparation, consistency and teamwork.

Nothing has yet been confirmed regarding his participation in all four disciplines, but his intriguing message has certainly given athletics followers something exciting to anticipate.

Could Beijing 2027 become the championship where Noah Lyles transforms an ambitious dream into an unforgettable reality?

Four events, four potential gold medals and the possibility of surpassing one of the greatest sprinting legends of all time. The countdown to Beijing promises to be fascinating.

What began as one of the most entertaining and talked-about stories of the 2026 New York City Marathon has taken an unexpected turn, with Houston-based lawyer Andrea Sager losing her official race result after a viral video showed her smoking marijuana during the event.

The 35-year-old mother of two attracted widespread attention on November 1 when she lined up for the iconic 26.2-mile race wearing a bright pink running vest carrying a humorous personal advertisement: “Andrea, 35, Single. Great Credit. Bad Judgment.” The unusual message quickly made her one of the most recognizable personalities among the thousands of participants, generating plenty of reactions from spectators and social media users.

However, it was another moment captured on camera that eventually landed her in trouble with race organizers. A video circulating online showed Sager accepting a puff of marijuana from a spectator while running along the marathon course, turning what had initially been a lighthearted appearance into a much bigger controversy.

Following the circulation of the footage, New York Road Runners (NYRR), the organization responsible for staging the marathon, removed Sager's finishing time of 5:54 from the official results after determining that she had violated its Code of Conduct. The regulations prohibit smoking, vaping and the use of tobacco or marijuana products in the starting corrals, along the course and within the designated race areas.

Despite the disqualification, Sager was allowed to retain her physical finisher's medal, meaning she still has a memento of completing the demanding journey through New York's five boroughs, even though her official finishing result no longer stands.

Sager has since offered an explanation for her decision, revealing that she was struggling physically as the race progressed. With considerable discomfort in her legs and the marathon becoming increasingly difficult, she said she accepted the offer from a spectator in an attempt to manage the pain and make the remaining miles more bearable.

Interestingly, the controversy has not entirely dampened her enthusiasm for the experience. Rather than retreating from the attention, Sager has embraced the unexpected publicity, revealing that the viral moment has brought considerable interest on social media and dating platforms.

Her distinctive pink running vest has also become a talking point beyond the marathon, with the attention opening up potential opportunities for merchandise and brand partnerships inspired by the memorable message.

Although she initially challenged the decision, Sager has acknowledged that the organizers were enforcing their regulations and appears to be taking the outcome with a sense of humour. She has also indicated that she could return to the marathon distance in the future, suggesting that her New York experience may not be her last.

For Sager, the 2026 New York City Marathon will undoubtedly be remembered for reasons far beyond the challenge of covering 26.2 miles. She arrived at the starting line hoping to enjoy her first marathon and perhaps attract a little attention with her unusual outfit. Instead, she left with a viral story, unexpected publicity and a disqualification that has made her one of the most talked-about recreational runners from this year's event.

Her finishing time may have disappeared from the official results, but her story has certainly found a place in the conversation surrounding this year's marathon.

After all, completing a marathon is an achievement in itself, but Andrea Sager's New York experience came with a twist that few runners could have anticipated!

World mile record holder Josh Kerr has sparked an interesting conversation among runners after questioning the growing popularity of hydration vests, suggesting that many athletes may be carrying more equipment than they actually need for their everyday training sessions.

The British distance-running star shared his thoughts during a Reddit Ask Me Anything session hosted by BBC Sport on Monday, where he responded to questions from fans about training, competition, rivalries and some of the lighter aspects of his life as an elite athlete.

Among the most relatable topics was the increasing use of hydration vests, a piece of equipment that has become increasingly common among recreational runners, particularly those who head out for regular training sessions.

Kerr offered a straightforward perspective, suggesting that runners covering distances of less than 12 miles (approximately 19 kilometres) generally do not need to carry water with them. He believes that some running trends are driven more by marketing than genuine necessity, using hydration vests as an example of equipment that has perhaps become more popular than it needs to be.

He further pointed out that runners training in urban environments can usually find somewhere to purchase a drink if they need one, rather than carrying additional equipment throughout their entire run.

However, his comments were not intended as a universal rule for every athlete. Hydration requirements differ depending on individual needs, weather conditions, training intensity and the distance being covered. Runners tackling longer distances, particularly in hot conditions or on remote trails, may still benefit considerably from carrying their own fluids.

Away from the equipment debate, Kerr also addressed questions about his relationship with Norwegian distance-running superstar Jakob Ingebrigtsen. Keeping his response brief and humorous, the Briton remarked, "I wouldn't say we're buddies!" However, he acknowledged that rivalries are an important part of athletics and can help make the sport more exciting for competitors and spectators alike.

The 2024 Paris Olympic Games also featured prominently in the discussion, particularly the men's 1500m final, where Kerr secured the silver medal in a British record of 3:27.79 behind American Cole Hocker.

Despite narrowly missing out on Olympic gold, Kerr insisted that he had no regrets about how he approached the race, reflecting the confidence and competitive mentality that have helped establish him among the leading middle-distance runners in the world.

The Scottish star also offered fans a glimpse into the demanding training sessions behind his remarkable mile world record, providing insight into the preparation required to compete at the highest level. He additionally touched on the possibility of eventually moving up to the marathon, a prospect that will undoubtedly attract considerable interest given his credentials over shorter distances.

Not every question, however, was about world records, Olympic medals or gruelling workouts. In one particularly amusing moment, Kerr was asked how far he thought he could run on just a single square sausage and a can of Irn-Bru, bringing a distinctly Scottish flavour to the conversation.

The exchange offered a refreshing look at the personality behind one of Britain's biggest athletics stars, showing that even athletes operating at the very highest level have plenty of opinions about everyday running habits.

For recreational runners, Kerr's message about hydration vests is certainly worth considering, although individual circumstances should always determine what equipment is necessary. His broader point was simple: runners should understand their actual training needs rather than automatically following every new trend in the running industry.

Kenyan marathon star John Korir is preparing to chase a remarkable piece of history at the 2026 Valencia Marathon, where victory could make him the first male athlete in more than two decades to successfully defend the prestigious title.

The 30-year-old, who will celebrate his birthday just four days before the December 6 race, returns to Spain with an opportunity to achieve something that has proved exceptionally difficult in the history of the competition. Having conquered the Valencia streets last year in an outstanding 2:02:24, Korir now has his sights firmly set on becoming a two-time consecutive champion.

A successful defence would place Korir in an exclusive group of athletes who have managed to win Valencia's men's marathon twice. The race's historical records identify only three previous multiple winners: Teodoro Pérez, Eduardo Alcaína and Samuel Tangus. Tangus remains the last man to achieve consecutive victories, having triumphed in 2002 and 2003.

Korir's opportunity has become even more promising following the withdrawal of Ethiopian star Yomif Kejelcha, who was ruled out of the December 6 contest because of an injury. Kejelcha had been among the biggest attractions in the anticipated showdown. His absence removes a major challenger and leaves Korir as one of the leading favourites heading into the race.

The Kenyan's recent performances explain why expectations are so high. He has established himself among the world's most formidable marathon runners, collecting major victories in Chicago in 2024, Boston in 2025, Valencia in December 2025 and Boston again in April 2026. His latest Boston triumph was particularly impressive, as he successfully defended his crown in a spectacular course-record time of 2:01:52.

However, Korir is not returning simply to defend his title. He has much bigger ambitions, with reports indicating that he is targeting a historic sub-two-hour performance on Valencia's famously fast course. To prepare for that challenge, the Kenyan has reportedly increased his training volume to between 250 and 270 kilometres per week, demonstrating the scale of preparation behind his ambitions.

Breaking the two-hour barrier would be an extraordinary achievement, particularly on a course where the current men's record stands at 2:01:48, set by Ethiopia's Sisay Lemma in 2023. Korir already knows what it takes to deliver a major performance in Valencia, having produced a commanding victory last year.

Turning 30 just days before the competition, Korir appears to be entering an exciting period of his marathon career. His combination of experience, consistency, confidence and remarkable endurance makes him a serious contender not only for another victory but also for a possible assault on the course record.

For Korir, December 6 represents an opportunity to go beyond another major marathon victory. He could end a 23-year wait for a consecutive men's champion in Valencia, join an exclusive group of multiple winners and potentially deliver one of the fastest marathon performances ever witnessed.

The challenge is now clear: defend his crown, make history and perhaps bring the world closer to another landmark moment in marathon running.