The TEN Preview: Nico Young Debuts, Alicia Monson Chases AR, and Karissa Schweizer Returns

Saturday night’s races at The TEN in San Juan Capistrano, Calif., will play a significant role in determining who gets to represent the United States in the 10,000 meters at this summer’s Olympics in Paris. The 2024 Olympic auto standards are incredibly tough — only three Americans have ever run under the 27:00.00 men’s standard and only five Americans have hit the 30:40.00 women’s standard — and you can count the number of world-class track 10,000-meter races each year on one hand. That’s why Grant Fisher, Nico Young, Woody Kincaid, Joe Klecker, Abdihamid Nur, Alicia Monson, Karissa Schweizer, Emily Infeld, Weini Kelati, and many more will be heading to SoCal Saturday night.

Since its first edition in 2021, The TEN has become the place for Americans to run a fast 10,000. Fisher set the men’s American record here in 2022 while Monson set the women’s American record here in 2023 and will be looking to repeat the feat in 2024.

To watch the main events, you’ll have to stay up late — the top heat of the women’s 10,000 does not start until 11:58 p.m. ET with the men to follow at 12:35 a.m. ET. Before then, we’ll get appetizer with the men’s 1500 (10:05 p.m. ET), which features Olympic medalists Matthew Centrowitz and Evan Jager kicking off their 2024 seasons.

Matthew Centrowitz and Evan Jager have seen it all in running. They both graduated from high school in 2007 and made their first US teams as young guns — Jager as a 20-year-old in 2009, Centro at 21 in 2011. For much of the 2010s, they were among the very best in the world in their events, with Centro bringing home a gold medal from the 2016 Olympics and Jager a silver. Now Centro (34) and Jager (35) are the elder statesmen, trying to fend off a host of younger rivals and make one last Olympic team in Paris.

Both men will run their 2024 outdoor openers in the 1500 on Saturday (Centro did run a 3:59 indoor mile on January 27 while Jager ran the first 4k of a 5k in Boston on February 16 before dropping out). Which means it’s time for one of our favorite games: how fast (or slow) will Centro run?

Throughout his career, Centrowitz has established himself as one of America’s greatest ever milers by delivering when it counts. He made every US team from 2011 through 2021 and won three outdoor medals as well as the 2016 World Indoor title. Yet in the latter years of his career, Centro thrown out some stinkers to begin his seasons before working his way into shape. In 2021, he opened with a 3:40 1500 on March 6 followed by a 1:50 800 on April 10 but ended the year running a 3:49 mile and making the Olympic team. Last year, he went to Australia and ran 1:56 for 800 on February 11 and 4:06 for the mile on February 23 but was running 3:36 for 1500 by May and eventually made the US final (though he only finished 10th).

So if Centro runs poorly here, it’s not cause for total panic. Heck, the fact that both he and Jager — who missed most of the 2023 campaign with a foot injury — are healthy enough to be racing is a promising sign. But the American 1500 scene is also more competitive than when Centro last made a team in 2021. Tactically, there is no better US racer than Centro, but he’s up against a group of young studs that includes three medalists from this year’s World Indoors (Yared Nuguse, Cole Hocker, Hobbs Kessler) and a trio of NCAA champions from the University of Washington (Luke Houser, Joe Waskom, Nathan Green). Nuguse is the oldest of that group at 24 — a full decade younger than Centro. Centrowitz is facing an uphill battle to make Olympic team #4 but if he can run 3:36 or 3:37 here and stay healthy for the next three months, he could still have a shot.

As far as the man most likely to win here, Sweden’s Samuel Pihlström ran 3:35 in February and just finished 8th at World Indoors.

Women’s 10,000 (11:58 p.m. ET): Alicia Monson tries to become the first US woman under 30:00 as Karissa Schweizer returns.

Unlike almost every other athlete in this meet, Alicia Monson already has the Olympic standard thanks to the 30:03 American record she ran here last year. So why is she back for another crack?

Monson laid it all out in an interview with LetsRun.com back in December:

Basically, it was just what can we do that would make me feel the most ready for the Olympics? And I feel like that’s running a sub-30:00 10k. I guess the plan would be to break the American record again, but really it’s how fast can I run to feel the most prepared? Because obviously I’m running against people who can run very fast and [I need to] be prepared to run at a pace that feels easy to them and then kick off of it.

Monson was still with the leaders at the bell at last year’s World Championships and her 5th-place finish was the best of her career in a global final. But she finished nearly four seconds out of the medals and the competition will be fierce in Paris. The last three global 10k champions — Sifan Hassan (29:06 pb), Letesenbet Gidey (29:01 pb), and Gudaf Tsegay (29:29 pb) — occupy three of the top four spots on the all-time 10,000m list. The slowest of them, Tsegay, still has a pb 34 seconds faster than Monson’s.

posted Friday March 15th
by Jonathan Gault